2 - Analyse de la diversification des recettes fiscales en Afrique
Corresponding Author(s) : Nimonka Bayale
Afrique et développement,
Vol. 49 No 1 (2024): Afrique et développement
Résumé
Les chocs économiques récents, notamment la pandémie de la COVID-19, ont illustré la fragilité des politiques publiques construites autour des sources de recettes concentrées. Le besoin de disposer d’une structure fiscale plus diversifiée constitue une préoccupation importante dans les pays en développement. Cet article analyse la diversification des recettes fiscales (DRF) de 39 pays d’Afrique, sur la période 2005-2019, en distinguant les pays riches en ressources naturelles des autres. Un indice de suivi de la DRF est construit. Les résultats indiquent que la valeur moyenne de cet indice pour l’Afrique se situe à 0,846, traduisant une performance insuffisante en matière de DRF. En outre, les facteurs qui déterminent la DRF sont analysés en employant la méthode bayésienne, la Méthode des moments généralisés (GMM) et la méthode des moindres carrés à variables dichotomiques et à biais corrigé (Least Squares Dummy Variable Corrected (LSDVC)). Les résultats montrent que le développement et la diversification économiques, la promotion du secteur industriel, des échanges commerciaux, de l’éducation, ainsi que le développement financier et celui de la digitalisation renforcent la DRF. En revanche, l’économie informelle, les ressources naturelles, la corruption et l’instabilité politique la détériorent. Ainsi, les pouvoirs publics devraient mettre l’accent sur la diversification économique, le développement de la digitalisation, la fiscalisation progressive du secteur informel et l’amélioration de la qualité des institutions, pour une diversification et une mobilisation accrues des recettes fiscales.
Mots-clés
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- AfDB (African Development Bank), 2007, African Development Report 2007: Natural Resources for Sustainable Development in Africa, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
- Akanbi, O.A., 2019, State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality, IMF WP No. 19/177.
- Arellano, M., and Bond, S., 1991, “Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations”, The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), p. 277–297.
- Balima, H., Daly, D., and Loko, B., 2020, External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization: A Dilemma? IMF WP No. 20/230.
- Banque mondiale, 2019, Étude sur la fiscalité en Afrique de l’Ouest – Rapport de synthèse, Washington, DC.
- Bayale, N., 2020, “Foreign aid and fiscal resources mobilization in WAEMU countries: Ambiguous effects and new questions”, African Journal of Economic Review, 8(2), p. 17–38.
- Bayale, N., Tchagnao, A. F., Nagou, M., & Tchila, P., 2023, “Beneficial impact of tax reforms on tax revenue performances in Togo: Myth or reality?”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 75, p. 1323–343.
- Bayale, N., Ali, E., Tchagnao, A. F., and Nakumuryango, A., 2021, “Determinants of renewable energy production in WAEMU countries: New empirical insights and policy implications”, International Journal of Green Energy 18(6), p. 602–614. Bayale, N., and Kouassi, B. K., 2022, “The Devil is in the Details: On the Robust Determinants of Development Aid in G5 Sahel Countries”, Comparative Economic Studies, p. 1–35.
- Bayes, T., 1763, “Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics: IX. Thomas Bayes’s Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances”, Biometrika 45, p. 296–315.
- Blundell, R., and Bond, S., 1998, “Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models, Journal of econometrics, 87(1), p. 115–143.
- Boly, A, Nandelenga, M.W., and Oduor, J., 2020, “Mobilizing Domestic Resource in Africa for Inclusive Growth”, Africa Economic Brief 11(3), pp. 1–7.
- Botlhale, E., 2021, “Public Revenue Diversification in Botswana During Crisis Times”, Forum for Development Studies 48, p. 271–288.
- Bruno, G.S.F., 2005, “Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models”, Economics Letters, 87(3), p. 361–366.
- Budina, N.T., Kinda, T., Schaechter, A. and Weber, A., 2012, Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis-Toward the ‘Next-Generation’ Rules: A New Dataset, IMF WP No. 12/187.
- Bun, M.J., and Kiviet, J.F., 2003, “On the diminishing returns of higher-order terms in asymptotic expansions of bias”, Economics Letters, 79(2), p. 145–152.
- Cadot, O., Carrère, C., and Strauss-Kahn, V., 2011, “Export diversification: What’s behind the hump?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), p. 590–605.
- Cazachevici, A., Havranek, T., and Horvath, R., 2020., “Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis”, World Development 134, 105021.
- Cariolle, J., Geourjon, A.M., et de Ubeda, A.A., 2019, « L’engagement dans l’intégration commerciale donne-t-il des résultats tangibles ? Principes et application à l’UEMOA d’un indice d’engagement des États », Revue d’économie du développement, 27(1), p. 73-112.
- Chebochok, M.C., & Bayale, N., 2023, “Effects of financial inclusion on tax revenue mobilization: Evidence from WAEMU countries”, African Development Review, 35(2), p. 226-238.
- Compaoré, A., Ouédraogo, R., Sow, M., and Tapsoba, R., 2020, Fiscal Resilience
- Building: Insights from a New Tax Revenue Diversification Index, IMF WP No. 20/194.
- Carroll, D.A., 2009, “Diversifying municipal government revenue structures: Fiscal illusion or instability?”, Public Budgeting and Finance 29(1), p. 27–48.
- Carroll, D., 2005, “Are State Governments Prepared for Fiscal Crises? A Look at Revenue Diversification during the 1990s”, Public Finance Review, 33(5), p. 603–633.
- Ebeke, C., and Ehrhart, H., 2012, “Tax revenue instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and remedies”, Journal of African Economies 21(1), p. 1–27.
- Fama E. F., and French K. R., 1995, “Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns”, Journal of Finance, 50.
- Fonds monétaire international, 2021, Government Finance Statistics, GFS database. Fonds monétaire international, 2020, Financial Development Index.
- Fonds monétaire international, 2018, « Mobilisation des recettes fiscales en Afrique subsaharienne : quelles sont les possibilités ? » Perspectives économiques régionales : Afrique subsaharienne, Washington, DC.
- FMI 2017, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub‐Saharan Africa. Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification, Washington, D.C.
- Frumkin, P., and Keating, E. K., 2011, “Diversification reconsidered: The risks and rewards of revenue concentration”, Journal of social entrepreneurship 2(2), p. 151–164.
- Giri, R., Quayyum, M.S.N., and Yin, R., 2019, Understanding export diversification: Key drivers and policy implications, IMF WP No. 19/105.
- Gupta, A.S., 2007, Determinants of tax revenue efforts in developing countries, IMF WP No. 07/184.
- Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., and Sturm, J., 2019, “The KOF Globalisation Index – Revisited”, Review of International Organizations 14(3), p. 543–574.
- Hirschman, A.O., 1964, “The paternity of an index”, The American Economic Review, 54(5), p. 761–762.
- Hung, C., and Hager, M.A., 2019, “The impact of revenue diversification on nonprofit financial health: A meta-analysis”, Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 48(1), p. 5–27.
- International Monetary Fund 2016, “Diversifying Government Revenue in the GCC: Next Steps”, GCC, Annual Meeting of Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors, Riyadh.
- Jordan, M.M., Yan, W., and Hooshmand, S., 2017, “The Role of State revenue structure in the occurrence and magnitude of negative revenue variance”, The American Review of Public Administration, 47(4), p. 469–478.
- Jordan, M.M., and Wagner, G.A., 2008, “Revenue Diversification in Arkansas cities: The budgetary and tax effort impacts”, Public Budgeting and Finance 28(3), p. 68–82.
- Kilby, K., 2014, Does Tax Revenue Diversification Help States Weather Economic Downturns? Evidence from the Great Recession, MPA/MPP Capstone Projects 12. Laffer, A., 2004, “The Laffer Curve: Past, Present, and Future”, https://www.heritage.org/taxes/report/the-laffer-curve-past-present-and-future.
- Laffer, A.B., 1981, “Supply-Side Economics”, Financial Analysts Journal, 37(5), p. 29–44.
- Laplace P.S., 1774, « Mémoire sur la Probabilité des Causes par les Événements », Savants étranges, 6, p. 621-656.
- Markowitz H., 1959, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, New York, John Wiley & Sons.
- Markowitz H., 1952, “Portfolio Selection”, Journal of Finance, 7(1), p. 77–91.
- Medina, L., and Schneider, F., 2018, Shadow economies around the world: what did we learn over the last 20 years? IMF WP No. 18/17.
- Modigliani, F., and Miller, M.H., 1958, “The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment”, American Economic Review, 48(3), p. 261–297.
- Ndikumana, L., and Abderrahim, K., 2010, “Revenue Mobilization in African Countries: does natural resource endowment matter?”, African Development Review 22(3), p. 351–365.
- OCDE 2021, « Recettes fiscales, indicateur », doi : 10.1787/2907dcbf-fr Shannon, C.E., 1948, “A mathematical theory of communication”, Bell System Technical Journal 27, p. 79–423.
- Shannon, C.E., and Wiever, W., 1949, The Mathematical Theory of Communication, University of Illinois Press, Urbana.
- Sharpe, W.F., 1964, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk”, The Journal of Finance 19(3), p. 425–442.
- Simpson, E.H., 1949, “Measurement of diversity”, Nature 163(688).
- Slime, B., and Hammami, M., 2016, “Concentration Risk: The Comparison of the Ad-Hoc Approach Indexes”, Journal of Financial Risk Management, 5(1), p. 43–56.
- Suyderhound, J., 1994, “State-Local Revenue Diversification, Balance, and Fiscal Performance”, Public Finance Review 22(2), p. 168–194.
- Theil, H., 1972, Statistical decomposition analysis, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company. Chapter IV.
- World Bank, 2014, Introduction to poverty analysis, World Bank WP No. 90288, Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
- Yan, W., 2012, “The impact of revenue diversification and economic base on State revenue stability”, Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management 24(1), p. 58–81.
- Yohou H.D., Goujon M., and Ouattara W., 2016, “Heterogeneous Aid Effects on Tax Revenues: Accounting for Government Stability in WAEMU Countries”, Journal of African Economies 25(3), p. 468–498.
- Zeugner, S., and M. Feldkircher, 2015, “Bayesian model averaging employing fixed and flexible priors: The BMS package for R”, Journal of Statistical Software 68(4), p. 1–37.
Les références
AfDB (African Development Bank), 2007, African Development Report 2007: Natural Resources for Sustainable Development in Africa, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Akanbi, O.A., 2019, State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality, IMF WP No. 19/177.
Arellano, M., and Bond, S., 1991, “Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations”, The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), p. 277–297.
Balima, H., Daly, D., and Loko, B., 2020, External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization: A Dilemma? IMF WP No. 20/230.
Banque mondiale, 2019, Étude sur la fiscalité en Afrique de l’Ouest – Rapport de synthèse, Washington, DC.
Bayale, N., 2020, “Foreign aid and fiscal resources mobilization in WAEMU countries: Ambiguous effects and new questions”, African Journal of Economic Review, 8(2), p. 17–38.
Bayale, N., Tchagnao, A. F., Nagou, M., & Tchila, P., 2023, “Beneficial impact of tax reforms on tax revenue performances in Togo: Myth or reality?”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 75, p. 1323–343.
Bayale, N., Ali, E., Tchagnao, A. F., and Nakumuryango, A., 2021, “Determinants of renewable energy production in WAEMU countries: New empirical insights and policy implications”, International Journal of Green Energy 18(6), p. 602–614. Bayale, N., and Kouassi, B. K., 2022, “The Devil is in the Details: On the Robust Determinants of Development Aid in G5 Sahel Countries”, Comparative Economic Studies, p. 1–35.
Bayes, T., 1763, “Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics: IX. Thomas Bayes’s Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances”, Biometrika 45, p. 296–315.
Blundell, R., and Bond, S., 1998, “Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models, Journal of econometrics, 87(1), p. 115–143.
Boly, A, Nandelenga, M.W., and Oduor, J., 2020, “Mobilizing Domestic Resource in Africa for Inclusive Growth”, Africa Economic Brief 11(3), pp. 1–7.
Botlhale, E., 2021, “Public Revenue Diversification in Botswana During Crisis Times”, Forum for Development Studies 48, p. 271–288.
Bruno, G.S.F., 2005, “Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models”, Economics Letters, 87(3), p. 361–366.
Budina, N.T., Kinda, T., Schaechter, A. and Weber, A., 2012, Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis-Toward the ‘Next-Generation’ Rules: A New Dataset, IMF WP No. 12/187.
Bun, M.J., and Kiviet, J.F., 2003, “On the diminishing returns of higher-order terms in asymptotic expansions of bias”, Economics Letters, 79(2), p. 145–152.
Cadot, O., Carrère, C., and Strauss-Kahn, V., 2011, “Export diversification: What’s behind the hump?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), p. 590–605.
Cazachevici, A., Havranek, T., and Horvath, R., 2020., “Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis”, World Development 134, 105021.
Cariolle, J., Geourjon, A.M., et de Ubeda, A.A., 2019, « L’engagement dans l’intégration commerciale donne-t-il des résultats tangibles ? Principes et application à l’UEMOA d’un indice d’engagement des États », Revue d’économie du développement, 27(1), p. 73-112.
Chebochok, M.C., & Bayale, N., 2023, “Effects of financial inclusion on tax revenue mobilization: Evidence from WAEMU countries”, African Development Review, 35(2), p. 226-238.
Compaoré, A., Ouédraogo, R., Sow, M., and Tapsoba, R., 2020, Fiscal Resilience
Building: Insights from a New Tax Revenue Diversification Index, IMF WP No. 20/194.
Carroll, D.A., 2009, “Diversifying municipal government revenue structures: Fiscal illusion or instability?”, Public Budgeting and Finance 29(1), p. 27–48.
Carroll, D., 2005, “Are State Governments Prepared for Fiscal Crises? A Look at Revenue Diversification during the 1990s”, Public Finance Review, 33(5), p. 603–633.
Ebeke, C., and Ehrhart, H., 2012, “Tax revenue instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and remedies”, Journal of African Economies 21(1), p. 1–27.
Fama E. F., and French K. R., 1995, “Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns”, Journal of Finance, 50.
Fonds monétaire international, 2021, Government Finance Statistics, GFS database. Fonds monétaire international, 2020, Financial Development Index.
Fonds monétaire international, 2018, « Mobilisation des recettes fiscales en Afrique subsaharienne : quelles sont les possibilités ? » Perspectives économiques régionales : Afrique subsaharienne, Washington, DC.
FMI 2017, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub‐Saharan Africa. Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification, Washington, D.C.
Frumkin, P., and Keating, E. K., 2011, “Diversification reconsidered: The risks and rewards of revenue concentration”, Journal of social entrepreneurship 2(2), p. 151–164.
Giri, R., Quayyum, M.S.N., and Yin, R., 2019, Understanding export diversification: Key drivers and policy implications, IMF WP No. 19/105.
Gupta, A.S., 2007, Determinants of tax revenue efforts in developing countries, IMF WP No. 07/184.
Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., and Sturm, J., 2019, “The KOF Globalisation Index – Revisited”, Review of International Organizations 14(3), p. 543–574.
Hirschman, A.O., 1964, “The paternity of an index”, The American Economic Review, 54(5), p. 761–762.
Hung, C., and Hager, M.A., 2019, “The impact of revenue diversification on nonprofit financial health: A meta-analysis”, Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 48(1), p. 5–27.
International Monetary Fund 2016, “Diversifying Government Revenue in the GCC: Next Steps”, GCC, Annual Meeting of Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors, Riyadh.
Jordan, M.M., Yan, W., and Hooshmand, S., 2017, “The Role of State revenue structure in the occurrence and magnitude of negative revenue variance”, The American Review of Public Administration, 47(4), p. 469–478.
Jordan, M.M., and Wagner, G.A., 2008, “Revenue Diversification in Arkansas cities: The budgetary and tax effort impacts”, Public Budgeting and Finance 28(3), p. 68–82.
Kilby, K., 2014, Does Tax Revenue Diversification Help States Weather Economic Downturns? Evidence from the Great Recession, MPA/MPP Capstone Projects 12. Laffer, A., 2004, “The Laffer Curve: Past, Present, and Future”, https://www.heritage.org/taxes/report/the-laffer-curve-past-present-and-future.
Laffer, A.B., 1981, “Supply-Side Economics”, Financial Analysts Journal, 37(5), p. 29–44.
Laplace P.S., 1774, « Mémoire sur la Probabilité des Causes par les Événements », Savants étranges, 6, p. 621-656.
Markowitz H., 1959, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments, New York, John Wiley & Sons.
Markowitz H., 1952, “Portfolio Selection”, Journal of Finance, 7(1), p. 77–91.
Medina, L., and Schneider, F., 2018, Shadow economies around the world: what did we learn over the last 20 years? IMF WP No. 18/17.
Modigliani, F., and Miller, M.H., 1958, “The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment”, American Economic Review, 48(3), p. 261–297.
Ndikumana, L., and Abderrahim, K., 2010, “Revenue Mobilization in African Countries: does natural resource endowment matter?”, African Development Review 22(3), p. 351–365.
OCDE 2021, « Recettes fiscales, indicateur », doi : 10.1787/2907dcbf-fr Shannon, C.E., 1948, “A mathematical theory of communication”, Bell System Technical Journal 27, p. 79–423.
Shannon, C.E., and Wiever, W., 1949, The Mathematical Theory of Communication, University of Illinois Press, Urbana.
Sharpe, W.F., 1964, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk”, The Journal of Finance 19(3), p. 425–442.
Simpson, E.H., 1949, “Measurement of diversity”, Nature 163(688).
Slime, B., and Hammami, M., 2016, “Concentration Risk: The Comparison of the Ad-Hoc Approach Indexes”, Journal of Financial Risk Management, 5(1), p. 43–56.
Suyderhound, J., 1994, “State-Local Revenue Diversification, Balance, and Fiscal Performance”, Public Finance Review 22(2), p. 168–194.
Theil, H., 1972, Statistical decomposition analysis, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company. Chapter IV.
World Bank, 2014, Introduction to poverty analysis, World Bank WP No. 90288, Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
Yan, W., 2012, “The impact of revenue diversification and economic base on State revenue stability”, Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management 24(1), p. 58–81.
Yohou H.D., Goujon M., and Ouattara W., 2016, “Heterogeneous Aid Effects on Tax Revenues: Accounting for Government Stability in WAEMU Countries”, Journal of African Economies 25(3), p. 468–498.
Zeugner, S., and M. Feldkircher, 2015, “Bayesian model averaging employing fixed and flexible priors: The BMS package for R”, Journal of Statistical Software 68(4), p. 1–37.